National Construction Pipeline Report

About the Report

The National Construction Pipeline Report provides a forward view of national building and construction activity over a 6-year period.

The report is based on building and construction forecasting by the Building Research Association of New Zealand (BRANZ), and data from building economics consultancy Pacifecon (NZ) Ltd on known non-residential building and infrastructure intentions.

It includes national and regional breakdowns of actual and forecast residential building, non-residential building and infrastructure activity.

Benefits of the Report

The report gives the construction and building sector valuable information to help it plan for future demand.

The report’s aim is to outline a clear pipeline of building and construction work to support:

• planning by all participants in the sector
• scheduling the investment in skills development and capital equipment
• coordinating construction procurement (particularly central and local government), which can lead to better scheduling of construction projects
• MBIE's internal research.

Aside from looking at residential and non-residential building work, the National Construction Pipeline Report also includes infrastructure intentions. These are of a non-building type such as roads, subdivisions and civil works and cover local government, central government and the private sector.

Reports

Read the web version of the infographic document

Summary of key findings from the 2024 report

Strong growth in building activity in 2026 and beyond

Overall activity in the sector is forecast to continue to decrease in 2025, before return to growth from 2026 and trend upwards to 2029, as the residential sector recovers strength.

Waikato/Bay of Plenty region to return to strong dwelling consent numbers

New dwellings consent in Waikato/Bay of Plenty region are forecast to increase at a faster rate than other regions with a forecast increase of 60% between 2024 and 2029.

Intentions remain high for non-residential activity

The intentions data suggests that there remain a significant pipework and non-residential activity will return to $13.3 billion by the end of the forecast period.

Local government infrastructure pipeline still to come

Infrastructure pipeline beyond 2027 shows a significant decrease in local government-initiated projects. This is likely due to both local and central government finalising details on future investment in infrastructure.

Key points by activity type

Residential

The report forecasts the value of residential building activity will decrease from $32.9 billion in 2023 to a low of $28.9 billion in 2025, then rise to $35.3 billion in 2029.

Almost 200,000 homes are forecast to be consented over the next 6 years, over 40% of which are expected to be multi-unit dwellings.

Non-residential

The report forecasts the value of non-residential building activity to decrease from the 2023’s high of $13.7 billion to $11.8 billion in 2024 and remain steady and consistent throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

Commercial make up 46% of the total number of non-residential projects expected to start in the next year.

Infrastructure

The infrastructure activity forecast remains relatively steady around $13.6 billion through to 2027, rising to $15 billion by the end of forecast period.

The outlook is less clear from 2027 onwards as local and central governments look to finalising details on future investment in infrastructure and Long-Term Plans.

Key points by location

Auckland

By 2029, 42.6% of the building consents in the forecast period are expected to be in Auckland, and the total construction activity in the region is forecast to be 4.2% higher compared with 2023 and it will remain the largest market for building and construction in the country.

Waikato/Bay of Plenty

Strong consenting activity is forecast for Waikato/Bay of Plenty, with more than 34,000 dwelling consents is expected between 2024 and 2029. Non-residential activity is forecast to remain stable and a gradual decrease in infrastructure activity over the forecast period.

Wellington

Residential building activity in Wellington is expected to see further decrease through to 2027 before regaining some strength and ending the forecast period at a similar level to 2023 at $2.5 billion. Construction activity for non-residential and infrastructure building is expected to be relatively constant through the forecast period.

Canterbury

Peaked in 2022, residential building activity in Canterbury is forecasted to decrease to $4.2 billion in mid-2025, increase to $5 billion in 2027 and decrease again to $4.2 billion at the end of the forecast period. Non-residential building activity is expected to remain steady through to 2028 and ending slightly higher in 2029 while infrastructure, after peaking in 2027 at $1.6 billion, ends the forecast period in 2029 at $1.3 billion.

Otago

Further reduction in the residential building activity is expected through 2026 before rising again in 2028 to return to 2023 levels by the end of forecast period. Non-residential is expected to make further gains throughout the forecast period while infrastructure sector will see a slight decrease in 2029.

Rest of New Zealand

The 10 remaining regions in New Zealand are reported combined under the ‘Rest of New Zealand’ reporting category. Reductions were evident in non-residential and residential building activity. In contrast, infrastructure activity is expected to continue to increase, a proportion of this increase related to the extreme weather events recovery and building further resilience into infrastructure networks.

Previous reports