Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS)
EDGS explores potential future electricity demand, and the generation capacity needed to meet that demand, out to 2050.
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Purpose
MBIE prepares an independent set of scenarios called the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS) that explore potential future electricity demand and required generation capacity. These are used by the Commerce Commission to assess Transpower’s planning proposals for future capital investment in the electricity transmission grid. The Commerce Commission is responsible for approving any major investments in transmission assets by Transpower.
EDGS has an explicit role in the investment test for approving Transpower’s proposals under the Transpower Capital Expenditure Input Methodology (Capex IM). The Capex IM is part of the Commerce Commission's individual price-quality path regulation of Transpower's electricity transmission services, under Subpart 7 of Part 4 of the Commerce Act 1986. For more information about the Capex IM, see the Commerce Commission website.
Transpower input methodologies(external link) — Commerce Commission
EDGS 2024
The 2024 release of EDGS was published in July 2024. The report describes the process to develop the scenarios and assumptions, as well as providing a discussion of key insights from the scenario modelling. It reflects changes since 2019 and includes developments in the New Zealand energy sector, changes in the economy, and ongoing technological development.
Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios 2024 [PDF, 1.9 MB]
A range of data related to this EDGS update can be accessed in the following files:
EDGS 2024 - Assumptions [XLSX, 250 KB]
EDGS 2024 - Results [XLSX, 569 KB]
Updates to EDGS data files
1 November 2024 – Fuel switching assumptions have been added to the Assumptions file and electricity generation emission factors have been added to the Results file.
EDGS 2023 consultation
We undertook a consultation over May and June 2023 on a set of draft assumptions about the future state of the electricity system as part of the development of EDGS 2024. We wanted to ensure that the potential scenarios presented and resulting modelling accurately reflect the potential pathways for the electricity sector.
You can find out more and read the submissions on the consultation page.
Have your say: Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS) 2023 consultation
EDGS 2019
The 2019 release of the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios was published in July 2019. EDGS 2019 explored future levels of electricity demand under 5 scenarios and how it could be met out to 2050.
The EDGS 2019 report describes the assumptions and key results for each of the modelled scenarios. Historic data, assumptions, and results for each modelled scenario are provided in the Data Summary file.
Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios 2019 [PDF 1.8MB](external link)
Feedback
We welcome feedback on the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios.
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